Sleeper Cell Report January 2026 – Thousands of ISIS fighters moved to Iraq amidst invasion chaos

Key Points:

• Invasion of NES sees hundreds of ISIS-affiliated detainees escape
• Four ISIS detention facilities and al-Hol camp now controlled by Syrian transitional government
• 6 attacks and 3 confirmed raids lead to one injured civilian and 11 arrests

 

In Depth

This month RIC recorded five ISIS sleeper cell attacks injuring one civilian and an unconfirmed number of military personnel. RIC also recorded three raids resulting in 11 arrests. This activity is much lower than recent months, however it’s not unprecedented. The invasion by Syrian Transitional Government forces severely hindered attempts to arrest ISIS suspects. We note that January and February last year, during which there was also war in NES, saw significantly lower figures when compared to the rest of the year: 11 and seven attacks respectively, compared to a monthly average of 20 attacks. January 2024 was also well below that year’s monthly average for attacks.

There were seven more attacks reported by sources as ISIS sleeper cell attacks, and three raids against suspected ISIS members in January which we could not verify. As well as Syrian transitional government (STG) forces invading across the Euphrates river, Arab tribes in NES took up arms against the SDF, launching attacks in SDF territory behind the front lines. Many of these attacks were credited to ‘sleeper cells’ but we want to draw a distinction between these tribes who operated as sleeper cells for the STG military, and the ISIS sleeper cells that we report on each month which carry out attacks as part of, and in the interests of, ISIS. This was further complicated by the fact that many of the villages that have historically seen regular ISIS activity were also villages where we saw uprisings last month. Due to the conflicting and unclear open source information landscape that accompanied this war, we cannot be certain that the attacks and arrests reported after January 10 involved ISIS operatives.

At the beginning of January there were several escape attempts from al-Hol camp. On January 3, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Internal Security Forces (Asayish) arrested a man, 11 women and 18 children, all part of ISIS members’ families, while they attempted to escape from the Syrian section. The next day, an escape attempt by three women and two children was also foiled by camp Asayish.

With the invasion seizing 80% of the autonomous administration’s territory in NES, prisons and camps holding ISIS prisoners and associates such as Shaddadi Prison, al-Aqtan Prison and al-Hol Camp fell under control of the STG. Four prisons and camps known to hold ISIS-linked individuals were taken over by the STG and several breakouts from these were attempted. 

In Shaddadi, all 120 inmates of Sini Prison escaped. According to the STG’s own reporting, only 81 have been recaptured. It is unclear how many escaped from the nearby, much larger Shaddadi Prison and Tameer Women’s Prison in Raqqa. Video evidence also showed breakouts from al-Hol camp on January 20 when the SDF withdrew. That day pro-ISIS social media accounts called on residents of the nearby town of al-Hol to reach out to escaping detainees. 

On January 25 there was another escape attempt from al-Hol. According to journalist Hamid al-Awqasi, the escape attempt was led by Abu Musab al-Masri, an Egyptian national and former Ansar al-Tawhid member. Since al-Sharaa’s rise to power, al-Masri had reportedly led a unit within the Syrian army’s 82nd Division until his death in late January during the fighting. It is believed Egyptian and Chechen families escaped. According to Syrian journalist Hammam Issa “200 Moroccan women managed to escape al-Hol” and Syrian families from al-Hol camp have begun to arrive in Aleppo.

The total number of escapees across every detention facility is unknown but none have been recorded from Roj camp and the prisons still under SDF control. STG forces and Syrian state media laid the blame for the escapes at the SDF’s feet, claiming the SDF released prisoners. Our investigation into the events at al-Hol camp debunks this claim.

There have however been numerous releases from these prisons by STG forces. After a six day siege al-Aqtan prison in Raqqa was handed over to STG forces. 126 minors, some of which the SDF say had been recruited by ISIS, were released from the juvenile detention facility in al-Aqtan prison. Video evidence also suggests releases from al-Ma’amel Prison in Deir ez-Zor and Tameer prison in Raqqa.

The STG military has former ISIS fighters within its ranks alongside believers in, and those sympathetic to, Salafi jihadism such as the thousands of Chechen, Uzbek and Uighur foreign fighters. Others sympathetic to ISIS have attempted to join Syria’s armed and security forces. In December a man associated with ISIS joined the STG’s Internal Security Forces before opening fire on U.S. soldiers, killing a U.S. citizen and two soldiers.

The Coalition therefore decided to transfer up to 7,000 ISIS prisoners away from the unrest and STG forces to Iraq. At the time of writing over 5,700 prisoners have been moved so far. On February 2 the Supreme Judicial Council of Iraq announced that they will begin investigating the new detainees under Iraq’s counterterrorism laws.

Moving forward, RIC will try to continue to monitor ISIS activity in NES within the 2025 DAANES borders and update our methodology accordingly. We hope to publish our annual sleeper cell report summarising ISIS activity in 2025 in the coming month, too. The new political situation presents many new challenges for us and, whilst we want to meet these challenges and continue monitoring ISIS, this particular aspect of our research may have to be discontinued.