20/01 Emergency update – Government siege on Kurdish areas risks total collapse of ISIS prison system

Key developments

  • Syrian army rapidly sweeps through North and East Syria (NES) as Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) withdraw from Arab-majority Tabqa, Raqqa, and Deir ez-Zor
  • Syria’s Kurdish-majority towns besieged and facing an onslaught from government-controlled factions with track record of jihadism, rights violations and war crimes
  • Newly announced20 January ceasefire deal opens door for 11th-hour dialogue – but Kurds fear Damascus will break the deal, and large explosions were reported in Qamishlo and Tirbespi just hours after the deal was made
  • Factions within the SAA continue attacks in southern Kobane and Heseke countryside post-ceasefire, as Kurds initiate a popular mobilization in response, with civilians flocking to prepare to defend their areas from an anticipated SAA onslaught
  • ISIS detention facilities fall out of SDF hands, with Syrian government offensive allowing outbreaks posing a global security risk

Ceasefire prospects: a four-day window?

  • Latest 20 January ceasefire gives SDF four days to propose a practical mechanism for integrating the Kurdish-majority areas into the central state, with the SDF stating “full commitment” to the deal which should see Syrian government forces remain outside Kurdish population centers
  • As Kurdish regions engage in general mobilization, local civilians arms themselves against the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). Nalin, a 53-year old local woman told RIC: “Yes, we are civilians, but we now have no choice but to arm ourselves. If the Damascus factions and extremist militias enter, we will be exterminated.”
  • A prior ceasefire plan announced 18 January never materialised, with senior Kurdish politician Fowza Yousef saying this was because Damascus had pushed for the total dismantling all civilian and military institutions in the Kurdish regions
  • In a press conference on Tuesday afternoon, senior Kurdish official Elham Ahmed confirmed that “the international coalition forces, have not to this moment, intervened militarily. “

Kobane encircled and besieged

  • Clashes and airstrikes are ongoing in the southern countryside of Kobane – the city known for Kurdish forces’ 2015 defeat of ISIS– around the Sarrin, Qara Qozak and Jabaliyah regions.
  • Kobane is now cut off from NES’ Jazira region. Electricity and water have been cut, and food and water supplies are running low, leaving hundreds of thousands facing a grave humanitarian crisis.

Syrian army factions film themselves committing abuses

  • There are mounting allegations of abuses by SAA forces. Videos circulating on social media appear to show captured SDF fighters being humiliated, beaten and executed.
  • The SDF has directly accused government factions of conducting beheadings, posting a video of what appears to be Syrian army fighters displaying decapitated SDF fighters.
  • With the composition of the current Syrian army including extremist jihadist factions with past or present links to al-Qaeda and ISIS, Kurds in northern Syria fear being subject to massacres.
  • Concerns were heightened when a Syrian official called for celebrations of “conquests and victories” – a term used to justify military action against ‘disbelievers’ under certain interpretations of Islamic law – and citing verse six of Surah al-Anfal, closely associated with the former Iraqi government’s genocidal 1988 Anfal campaign.

Widespread breakdown in ISIS detention facilities

  • The SDF was previously responsible for detaining over 10,000 suspected ISIS members, including 2,000 foreign fighters. Most are now in the hands of Damascus. RIC has identified at least six sites in which detainees were released by Syrian forces or armed forces operating in close coordination with Damascus.
  • An unknown number of fighters have escaped. The SDF claimed that 1,500 ISIS fighters (including foreign nationals) were released from al-Shaddadi prison during its takeover by the Syrian army.
  • Pro-ISIS online networks have been urging sympathisers and tribal militias to enact more prison break operations.
  • The SDF has had to withdraw from al-Hol camp – holding thousands of radicalised foreign women.
  • SAA fighters posted live videos which showed the al-Hol camp fence breached at numerous points.
  • Concerns regarding Syrian-Iraqi border security are hence growing amongst the Yazidi population in Sinjar (Iraq) as perpetrators of genocide and sexual violence are amongst the ISIS militants who have escaped prison in Syria.
  • Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) says it captured “a prominent ISIS leader” who was attempting to cross in from Syria this evening.
  • In Raqqa’s al-Aqtan prison, a small group of SDF fighters have been surrounded for three days without food and water amid ongoing SAA assaults. A reported 2,000 ISIS members are trying to escape from the prison, and several SDF fighters have been killed. The SDF have been negotiating their extraction with Coalition forces.

Rapidly deteriorating security and humanitarian situation met with defiant response

  • RIC has been speaking to civilians on the ground throughout Kurdish regions, where intense defensive preparations have been underway since Monday evening.
  • Civilians mobilized in the streets, with Diyar, a Yazidi student telling RIC: “The morale is very high. We are Kurds and that is it. We will not let anyone come kill us.”
  • The local Community Defence Forces (HPC), responsible for neighbourhood security, directed the building of defensive barricades
  • Kurds from other regions of Kurdistan have been heading en masse towards Rojava, trying to cross the borders to reach Kobane, Qamishlo, and Derik
  • At the Syrian-Turkish border between Qamishlo and Nusaybin, Kurds from Turkey attempted to force their way into Syria. Live fire from Turkish border guards resulted in injuries.
  • In Qamishlo water supplies are running low, with civilians reporting that no water has come from their mains tap for several days.
  • In Qamishlo and Heseke, thousands of Kurdish IDPs are being sheltered in schools, parks and camps after fleeing the SAA advance.

RIC is on-the-ground in NES and available to provide comment, photos and videos, and contact to political representatives, civilians, IDPs, and humanitarian personnel for comment. Get in touch via e-mail: [email protected] or on WhatsApp or Signal: +963 992 461 683.

Internally displaced people from Tabqa reach Qamishlo