Update December 2 – Northern Syria Offensive
Since yesterday, the Shehba region has been taken over by Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) factions, in an opportunistic attack which has resulted in the expulsion of many of the tens of thousands of Kurdish and other refugees living in the region.
RIC map of Dec 2, showing the advance of forces on ground
The assault followed the advance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) against the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) which caused Russian forces to withdraw from the isolated region. The exclave was formerly under the civilian governance of the Kurdish-led Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES), but divided from the main territories under long-term DAANES control. The Afrin and Shehba Peoples’ Council made a statement saying that “in order not to expose the population to massacres, they decided to leave of their own free will.”
Thousands of civilians from Shehba have left the region for Manbij, Tabqa and Raqqa, major cities within the contiguous DAANES. Many of these civilians were already internally displaced from neighboring Afrin during the prior Turkish invasion and occupation in 2018. In Tabqa, temporary shelters have started to receive the convoy of internally displaced peoples (IDPs). The SNA militias conducting the attack have been accused of a wide range of war crimes by the UN and in some instances been sanctioned by the US Treasury for conducting a range of rights abuses against civilians including murder, torture, gang rape and kidnapping for ransom, specifically targeting women, Kurds, and the Yezidi and Christian minorities.
Kurdish neighborhoods encircled in Aleppo
The Kurdish-majority, DAANES-administered neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh in Aleppo, home to a reported 150,000 civilians, are in a state of siege. Reports say that food supply is rapidly dwindling with no way to replenish it since the surrounding areas are controlled by either HTS or SNA factions.
These neighborhoods, also isolated from the contiguous territory held by the DAANES, have suffered repeated sieges, embargoes, sniper fire and shelling by both the SAA and Islamist opposition groups throughout the past 12 years of the Syrian conflict. The all-female Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) issued a statement announcing that a number of both male and female members of defense forces in Sheikh Maqsoud fell into the hands of Turkish-backed SNA factions.
A local source told RIC that YPJ is engaged in discussions over security measures for those citizens who remained in Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh.
Developments in the DAANES
The SDF’s Deir ez-Zor military council is reportedly engaged in clashes against the SAA in the Khasham pocket, a number of villages in the contested Deir ez-Zor region previously under Syrian government control.
ISIS sleeper cells in Deir ez-Zor and the central Syrian desert have yet to make significant moves, but are expected to exploit the situation to their advantage.
Geopolitical developments
US military spokesperson Gen. Patrick Ryder stated that the USA had no involvement with the complex operations unfolding around Aleppo, adding that the USA remains prepared to defend forces in the region, including those in the anti-ISIS mission – ie. the US-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
A joint statement was put out from the US, UK, France, and Germany urging de-escalation by all parties and the protection of civilians and infrastructure to prevent further displacement and disruption of humanitarian access. The statement also stresses the need for a Syrian-led political solution to the conflict, in line with UNSCR 2254. A meeting was held today between the US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in which they discussed the need for de-escalation in Syria and protection of civilian lives and infrastructure in Aleppo.
Today, Syria President Bashar Assad declared that the military developments in the country represent an attempt to reshape the country’s borders to align with US and Western countries’ interests. During discussions with Iranian President Massoud Bezhkishan, Assad emphasized the importance of Syrian-Iranian cooperation in combating terrorism.
Iraqi forces announced today that enhanced security measures are being taken in securing the border with Syria. Meanwhile, there were reports that thousands of members of Iran-controlled Iraqi militias are entering Syria to reinforce the SAA.
