Update December 13 and 14 – Turkish-backed SNA Mobilization Geared Towards Assault on Kobane, Say SDF officials

Highlights

• While a ceasefire is in place after a multi-day Turkish-backed SNA assault on the Tishreen Dam and Qaraqozak bridge (connecting SNA-controlled Manbij to SDF-controlled Kobane), SDF officials say that a fresh Turkey/SNA offensive on Kobane is imminent.
• Kobane city cut from power and water due after Tishreen Dam hydroelectric facilities damaged in SNA attacks.
• SNA violations against civilian lives and property in Manbij triggers popular anger.
• ISIS threat high on the international agenda, with US Secretary of State, former UK intelligence chief, and US senator all emphasizing the heightened risk due to volatility in Syria and Turkish attacks on the SDF.

Ceasefire on the Tishreen, SNA violations against civilians in Manbij

• A 4-day SNA-SDF ceasefire was announced on December 12; since December 13, no major fighting on the Tishreen Dam and Qereqozak has been reported; today, SDF stated that the US has begun mediating talks including regarding the fate of the tomb of Sultan Suleiman Shah (currently situated in Ashme, west of Kobane). YPJ Commander-in-Chief, Rohilat Afrin said Turkey is demanding the right to build a military base on the site and deploy heavy weapons there, which the SDF did not accept.
• As per the SNA’s announcement of the ceasefire and SDF Commander-in-Chief, Mazloum Abdi’s recent comments, military forces of both sides should exit Manbij.
• SNA militiamen in Manbij reportedly looted and burned the city’s Muhammad Manla Ghazil library, which contained 20,000 books.
• Reports of SNA looting property in Manbij amass. Most recently, SNA militiamen killed a civilian in Manbij – Ali Sheikhani – when the latter blocked the SNA from looting his restaurant.
• 10 buses and 6 ambulances from the Kurdish Red Crescent headed towards Qaraqozak bridge today, preparing to take those requesting evacuation from Manbij (both wounded fighters and civilians), but were obstructed by the SNA on the western end of the bridge and could not reach their destination.
• The Bani Said tribe published a statement in outrage at the SNA’s prolific theft and looting in Manbij.

Turkish/SNA strikes on Tishreen Dam have cut power and water from thousands

• Kobane Water Board co-chair said Kobane city has been without water for four days due to the SNA’s attack on the Tishrin Dam cutting power from the water station, and SNA strikes prevented access to sites of fuel-powered generators that could have been used as a back-up power source. Kobane residents are now relying on prohibitively expensive tanked water.
• The International Committee of the Red Cross in Syria was on-site at the Tishreen and stated that they carried out “assessments and urgent maintenance to ensure the safety of the Tishreen Dam […] to ensure that the residents of neighbouring villages are not exposed to any danger.”
• A journalist in Kobane told RIC: “No electricity and no water in the city. They use generators and pump water. The hospital think they will have electricity for 10 days, no more. As the road from Manbij is blocked, they don’t get supplies – medicine, food, anything.”

Kurdish city Kobane under threat of Turkish attack

• SDF Commander Rohilat Afrin told press that Turkey is mobilizing to attack Kobane – the site of ISIS’ first defeat in 2014, and the inception of the USA’s partnership with the YPG/YPJ and then SDF.
• Numerous reports of SNA mobilization towards Qaraqozak bridge.
• An SDF source told RIC: “There are more movements of SNA mercenaries and armoured vehicles on their side right now. They don’t need to mobilize so much as they already have a large presence waiting there to attack. But the threat is real.”
• A journalist in Kobane told RIC: “People say they are ready to defend the city again, but the [Turkish] drones change everything. They regret that the Coalition does not offer more support.”
• US forces reached Kobane today and were driving around the city center – confirmed to RIC by a source on the ground – for the first time since leaving the region in 2019.
• Yesterday, thousands gathered in Kobane for the funeral of 8 fighters killed during the Turkish-backed SNA’s assault on the Tishreen Dam and Qaraqozak; similar scenes were captured in Aleppo’s two DAANES-linked neighbourhoods, Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh, during the funeral of 10 people killed there during the initial days of the entrance of the HTS-led forces to Aleppo city.
• Turkish/SNA shelling on Ayn Issa seriously injured one civilian last night.
• The Dutch parliament has requested that the Dutch government call on Turkey to both cease its attacks on NES and ensure the rights of Kurds in the Syrian political transition.

Kobane city came into the global spotlight in 2014 as the site of ISIS’ first defeat, led by YPG/YPJ

ISIS threat high on the international agenda with SDF under attack from Turkey

• SDF Commander-in-Chief, Mazloum Abdi, told Fox News that Turkish/SNA attacks have “paralysed” SDF counter-terror operations, with the number of guards in ISIS prisons reduced by half. In an interview with Ronahi TV, Abdi also confirmed that the SDF are no longer present on the western side of the Euphrates River in Deir ez-Zor.
• Former M16 head noted risk of “serious spike in the threat posed to Europe by ISIS” if SDF’s ability to contain the ISIS detainees in NES is harmed.
• The Syrian Democratic Council warned in a statement that ISIS is exploiting the current instability to re-organize its forces.
• US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told press “the urgency of now is to make sure that the success that we’ve had over the last years in ending […] the territorial caliphate of ISIS, making sure that ISIS was in a box and stays there – that remains a critical mission. And the SDF is playing a critical role in pursuing that mission […] in securing the detention facilities that hold 10,000 or so foreign terrorist fighters. […] This is a moment of vulnerability in which ISIS will seek to regroup”.
• US Senator Chris Van Hollen released a statement urging the US to continue its support for the SDF “who serve as the tip of the spear in our fight against ISIS” and “not allow Turkish-backed militants to attack the SDF with impunity”.

Intra-Syria relations

• HTS says it is not targeting SDF territories; HTS-SDF agreements in place for Deir ez-Zor and Aleppo, stated Mazloum Abdi.
• A delegation from NES is expected to be in Damascus negotiating with HTS in the near future, regarding a political settlement within the country.
• With intra-Kurdish talks reported to be ongoing between the Democratic Union Party-led block and the Kurdish National Council in Syria, DAANES’ foreign relations department co-chair Elham Ahmed stated: “Kurdish unity in Syria has become a historical necessity” and called on Kurdish parties to unify their positions to “support the Syrian dialogue and participate in building the future of a democratic pluralistic Syria.”

With SDF and DAANES under pressure, both protests and declarations of support

• Amidst ongoing pro-HTS protests in Raqqa, against which the SDF are accused of using disproportionate force, Mazloum Abdi stated: “we are committed to addressing all issues peacefully […] We also reaffirm our commitment to hold accountable any party found to have been involved or unfair abuse of its power. Raqqa and its people deserve a dignified and safe life, and we will spare no effort to achieve this. We promise that there will be practical and transparent steps to address the current situation, and we will work to ensure that your voice is heard in every decision taken.”
• In Tel Hamis, Arab tribal sheikhs convened for a meeting in which they affirmed their support for the Autonomous Administration as “the strategic and basic model for building a democratic Syria”.