Update December 18 – Threat To Kobane Remains Despite Ceasefire

Highlights

-US-mediated ceasefire announced, yet clashes on Tishreen Dam and Qereqozak Bridge continue
-SNA media channels report mobilization for an attack on Kobane; NES’ political and military institutions call for international support in the face of Turkish threat
-Tishreen Dam inoperable; 2 million people are facing severe water shortages
-HTS’ rule in Aleppo city tightens; civilian source reports introduction of gender segregation policy for elevators and mandatory head covering for women going to court
-DAANES and the Syrian Opposition Coalition both respectively confirm they have not met for talks with HTS leader al-Jawlani yet.

Ceasefire extended, yet clashes are ongoing as Turkey/SNA threaten offensive on Kurdish city of Kobane

-After the initial four-day ceasefire around Tishreen Dam and Qaraqozak Bridge expired, the US announced yesterday that they had mediated negotiations securing another ceasefire, lasting until the end of the week.
-Despite this, yesterday evening and today saw clashes occurring in both sites, with the SDF stating that the SNA launched another round of ground attacks supported by Turkish drone strikes, before being eventually pushed back by the Manbij Military Council
-In a press conference, Syrian Kurdish politician Salih Muslim said “Turkey is not accepting [the ceasefire]. Nor those groups [the SNA]. Because of that there are clashes from time to time. Last night for example.” He added “The people of Kobane are in alarm at the situation. They don’t know what will happen. The drones are flying over them all day. This is a very critical situation.”
-Yesterday, SDF Commander-in-Chief Mazloum Abdi publicly proposed “a demilitarized zone in the city of Kobane, with the redistribution of security forces under American supervision and presence” aiming to “address Turkey’s security concerns and ensure lasting stability.”
-Two US Senators announced they “intend to introduce bipartisan sanctions legislation this week” if Turkey doesn’t “immediately accept a sustained ceasefire and demilitarized zone” in North and East Syria (NES)
-SNA shelling along the Turkish-occupied M4 Strip contact line reported all day; Tel Tamir power station put out of service
-SDF claimed to have shot down another Turkish drone last night
-Turkish drone strike reported on car in Hosan village, Ayn Issa
-SNA media channels continue to broadcast that an attack on Kobane is imminent; SDF report that “the Turkish state is mobilizing a large number of troops and mercenaries along the border, equipping them with heavy weaponry”; in the past days, Kobane residents have taken to the streets in mass demonstration against the threat, while numerous political bodies in NES have made public statements calling for international support including the Syrian Democratic Council and the DAANES Euphrates Canton Council
-Ahmed Amer, a civilian in Kobane, told RIC: “People are incredibly scared, always asking has America withdrawn? Did they agree with the Turks? When we are displaced, where will we go? Go to any street and you will hear these questions. Some families are prepared in anticipation of any emergency. Some say: if something happens we won’t go anywhere, this is our land. Movement in the market is almost non-existent. People are stressed so some merchants and shops do not bring goods for fear of attacks. The world must understand that Turkey does not want peace. Especially for the Kurdish people. It uses the tomb of Suleiman Shah as an excuse to invade our areas, with the help of the so-called SNA, who are currently stealing and looting the homes of the people of Manbij.”
-OCHA: the Tishreen Dam is non-operational and the subsequent power outages in water stations mean over 2 million people are facing severe water shortages

SNA factions’ criminal practices in Manbij 

-Some Manbij residents carried out a ‘dignity strike’, protesting a surge in violence, looting, theft, and arbitrary arrests following the SNA’s seizure of the city
-OCHA: in Manbij, looting and theft by armed groups [the SNA] have disrupted trade and market functionality
-Most recently, a school in Manbij was reportedly looted by SNA faction Suleiman Shah – whose notorious leader Abu Amsha was pictured with HTS leader al-Jawlani in Damascus two days ago, alongside Abu Bakir, the leader of the Hamza Division faction. The alliance between HTS and the two SNA factions goes back to March 2022 when the three established a security agreement stipulating mutual support. HTS fighters have also been covertly stationed in Afrin under the banners of its SNA allies. Both Abu Amsha and Abu Bakir are US-sanctioned for “serious human rights abuses” in Turkish-occupied Afrin. Hamza and Suleiman Shah are amongst the factions that led the SNA’s offensive on Shehba, says Ibrahim Sheikho, coordinator of the Afrin Human Rights Organization
-A member of the DAANES Manbij people’s council, currently in Raqqa, told RIC: “No one [still in Manbij] dares to speak on the phone about what is going on there. Many people have changed their numbers because they are afraid. Those who I am still in contact with don’t dare to say anything about the violations happening there.” Many members of the Manbij people’s council managed to leave the city and make it to safety to Raqqa or Kobane, but some still remain trapped in the city.
-One of the topics covered in the US-mediated negotiations that took place over the last few days was the issue of evacuating SDF fighters and civilians, still in Manbij, who wish to leave the city. A DAANES official told RIC that a convoy prepared to evacuate those persons is ready but “the SNA don’t let it pass.”

L to R: Abu Bakir (Hamza Division), al-Jawlani (HTS), Abu Amsha (Suleiman Shah Brigade)

Spectre of ISIS resurgence looms large

-Head of Iraq’s National Security Service said that ISIS cells in Syria are planning to attack detention facilities in NES, posing risk to regional and international security
-NES has 27 prisons, holding over 10,000 ISIS detainees, as per the latest figures from the YPG Media Center director, Siyamend Ali
-US Senator Lindsey Graham warned that Turkish military operations could lead to thousands of ISIS fighters escaping, calling for a demilitarized zone to stop Turkish pressure on NES
-Today, an ISIS attack in Raqqa killed two members of the internal security forces (Asayish), and injured two members; a separate attack in Abu Khashab (Deir ez-Zor) killed three SDF members

Shehba IDP crisis

-OCHA: in NES, the critical needs of IDPs remain unmet across 250 emergency collective centers. 75% of the emergency centers lack water supply and sanitation services while 90% lack solid waste management. Most IDPs lack access to drinking water, functional latrines, showers and hygiene kits
-Of the ~90,000 people displaced from Shehba, 50,000 remain in Tabqa and Raqqa, 30,000 have gone to Aleppo, and the rest are spread in NES’ other cities, primarily Heseke and Qamishlo, as per Ibrahim Sheikho, Shehba IDP and coordinator of Afrin Human Rights organization
-In Qamishlo city, an IDP center coordinator who was managing 48 families living in a dis-used school told RIC: “The school is at risk of collapse – it was damaged by the [2023] earthquake. You see the damaged rooms inside but IDPs are here – there is no alternative. We have been here for 10 days. We have partially arranged some essential supplies, with some IDPs bringing personal items with them. However there is still a significant shortage. No relief organization has helped us, aside from one. We urgently need kitchen and dining utensils. There are no ways to heat the rooms, or cooking gas. Many children are sick. There are a lot of health problems. IDPs need to go to hospital but treatment costs a lot – families cannot afford it.”

Shehba IDPs in Tabqa camp 

Worrying signs of HTS-imposed restrictions in Aleppo city

-In Sheikh Maqsoud – the small DAANES-governed pocket of Aleppo city – a civilian source told RIC: “In terms of fighting, the neighborhood is calm. But psychologically, the people are scared. There are Yezidis, Christians, Arabs, Kurds in the neighborhood. HTS says ‘we want peace’. But on the ground there’s nothing like this. In the media they paint themselves very nicely. On the ground they are imposing things. Yesterday we were told if you go to court you have to cover your head if you are a woman. If you go into a lift, women and men must be separate now. People who smoke have to go outside, not inside. This is the beginning. Small things. But after this, when they establish themselves more, stricter decisions will come. They are currently considering segregation in the university.”

Developments in intra-Syria relations

-Hadi al-Bahra, President of the Syrian Opposition Coalition, announced that the coalition will dissolve once a national conference is held in Syria – and said that coalition representatives have not met HTS leader and head of military operations, al-Jawlani, but have communicated with the interim government
-The DAANES announced the abolishment of customs taxes between NES and other regions of Syria, citing “commitment to the unity of Syrian territories”
-In a press conference, veteran Syrian Kurdish politician Salih Muslim stated that the DAANES has prepared a delegation to go to Damascus to talk to the interim government, but has not received a response from the latter as of yet

 

RIC is on-the-ground in NES and available to provide comment, photos and videos, and contact to IDPs, political representatives and humanitarian personnel for comment. Get in touch via e-mail: [email protected] or on WhatsApp or Signal: +963 992 461 683.