Explainer: Turkish and SNA offensive on Manbij
North and East Syria’s Manbij canton, in the north-east of the Aleppo region, is currently facing the threat of a large-scale offensive by Turkey and Turkish-backed SNA (Syrian National Army). For several years, Turkey has repeatedly stated that it aims to seize Manbij. Recent developments in Syria have opened the way for a renewed attempt to take the canton from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Manbij is a vital city for North and East Syria (NES), governed by the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES), of which the SDF form the official military wing.
In this explainer, the Rojava Information Center (RIC) will provide the necessary context to understand the events currently unfolding in Manbij.
Background: Demography, Geography, Economy
Manbij is a city 30 kilometers west of the Euphrates river which, like much of NES, relies on the Euphrates Dam in Tabqa as its main source of electrical power. Home to around 300,000 people, Manbij is also an important center of commerce and light industry, and a large number of shops, workshops and small enterprises are heavily dependent on the dam’s supply of electricity. Despite the dam’s significant generating capacity, the city has suffered from frequent electricity shortages due to decreasing water flow, which the DAANES claims is due to Turkey withholding water upstream, as well as Government of Syria (GoS) and Russian presence at the dam re-directing power to GoS-controlled areas. Geographically, Manbij has served as a strategic crossing point for those moving between GoS-controlled areas via Aleppo, the DAANES-controlled Aleppo neighbourhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh, as well as the DAANES’ Shehba exclave (which is now occupied and controlled by the SNA).
Manbij is a prominently multi-ethnic city. The population is mainly Arab, though Kurds, Turkmen, Circassians, and Chechens make up significant minorities. Per the 2004 census, Manbij had a population of nearly 100,000. Today, Manbij and the surrounding settlements are home to half a million inhabitants.
Manbij prior to the current conflict
Having been liberated from ISIS in 2016 by the SDF, Manbij canton has seen the most reconstruction and redevelopment out of the four Arab-majority cantons of NES that were previously under ISIS rule. One of the developments achieved during the DAANES’ governance has been the peaceful co-existence of Manbij’s diverse communities, many of whom had lived unrecognized and oppressed during both GoS and ISIS control. For example, Turkmens are organized autonomously within the communes of the five all-Turkmen neighborhoods and in Turkmen villages. The Turkmen community in Manbij gathers in a Turkmen Association which provides a meeting place in the city center, language lessons for adults and children, history and culture lectures, and art and sports activities. The association also engages in political organizing in the local community, visits families, and holds meetings in Turkmen neighborhoods. Their goal is to introduce lessons in their dialect of Turkish (distinct from the language as spoken in Turkmenistan and Central Asia) in the schools of Turkmen neighborhoods and villages. In terms of governance, the DAANES has sought to blend its own commune-council-canton system with pre-existing tribal governance structures encompassing 64 different tribes. Furthermore, in recent years women have experienced autonomy and political freedoms previously unknown to them during the rule of Assad —let alone the years spent under control of jihadi-salafist groups— as the DAANES introduced numerous civil structures, such as democratic assemblies and autonomous women’s institutions, that embody the administration’s commitment to gender equality.
DAANES, Manbij, 2021 [RIC]
Manbij was the first area governed within the DAANES’ system that did not have a majority-Kurdish population, hence its inclusion within NES tested the DAANES’ stated vision of a decentralized democracy with cultural and political representation and autonomy for all groups and peoples, as opposed to a Kurdish-nationalist political project (an accusation often levelled at them). Major challenges emerged as the DAANES took control in the conservative, war-weary community of Manbij, where many were suspicious and distrustful of the new system. Before ISIS rule, during the early stages of the Syrian Civil War, Manbij had elected its own democratic council and hosted Syria’s first independent trades union. Local activists complained that these gains were not restored, but rather replaced by the DAANES’ own councils. In 2021, violent protests occurred in Manbij. In response, the local administration conducted a number of public discussions and established a committee consisting of tribal representatives and those from a variety of civil and military institutions, aiming to resolve the issues which had led to the protests. These included topics related to conscription, alleged arbitrary arrests of civilians, inadequate water and electricity provision, and excessive prices for fuel and other necessities compared to neighboring regions.
Military history of Manbij
In 2012, at the beginning of the Syrian Civil war, the Free Syrian Army, at that time a merger of rebel militias, took control of Manbij from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). Just a year later in January 2014, the FSA lost the city to ISIS. Under the islamists’ rule the city became a hub for trading looted artifacts and archaeological equipment. In 2016, the SDF captured the city from ISIS. SAA soldiers re-entered the region in late 2019, following a DAANES-Damascus deal to oppose the Turkish threat to Syrian territory as US troops hastily left the region around Manbij.
Manbij Military Council (MMC) was established as the regional military council in 2016. Such military councils exist in each of the DAANES’ cantons, all of which are incorporated within the SDF. They organize and coordinate their own military defense according to each canton’s specific needs, as decided by the council itself.
Since 2019 there had been military units of both the SDF/MMC and SAA stationed in Manbij with some of the frontline positions being shared and jointly coordinated. The SAA troops were supported, supplied, and equipped by Russian forces. However it is widely acknowledged that the government of Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia, had long sought to widen its influence in Manbij. The relatively effective cooperation that had existed between the MMC and SAA should not obscure this fact, as MMC spokesperson Shervan Derwish told RIC in August 2020:
“We let [SAA] come and go to our shared positions on the frontlines, that’s it. They are trying to organize support in the countryside, but they haven’t been able to achieve any change on the ground.”
As with most of the Arab-majority regions, Manbij experienced a spike of attacks following ISIS’ defeat and before the US withdrawal. On 16 January 2019, a bombing at a popular Manbij restaurant killed 19 people. Mr. Derwish himself has survived numerous assassination attempts.
What is the current situation in Manbij?
Since the beginning of the ongoing SNA offensive on SDF-held areas of Northern Syria, Manbij has been targeted by multiple attempted ground infiltrations, which MMC report as having been thwarted, as well as heavy shelling that has resulted in a number of civilian casualties. Turkish drones remain in the sky, both over the city and in the countryside. On December 6, SDF Commander-in-Chief, Mazloum Abdi, stated that Turkey “threatens Manbij and other cities. However, we have said before that we want to solve our problems with Turkey through dialogue.” Hence, while “threats from Turkish-backed groups continue,” Abdi commented that “we have taken military measures to protect ourselves from the attacks of these groups, but we do not want another conflict in the region.” On the same day, SNA factions participating in the offensive against the SDF declared the beginning of an operation to take Manbij via social media channels. The MMC in turn stated the following day that Turkey and the SNA had “intensified their attacks on Manbij and its surrounding villages,” alluding to the fact that such attacks have been ongoing for days now. The MMC statement reported heavy and ongoing Turkish drone strikes, SNA shelling and ground attacks.
Manbij lies in a strategic location, and is now the last major SDF stronghold west of the Euphrates. The city is considered a definitive goal of Turkey’s plan to drive the SDF eastward beyond the Euphrates, after which the city of Kobane is clearly in Turkish President Erdogan’s sights. Prior to the SAA’s unprecedented retreat in this past week, Manbij was beset by a double frontline, with both its northern and western flanks threatened by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), and the borders of Turkey lying less than 12km beyond. SNA factions in Turkish-occupied in Al-Bab and Jarabulus often shelled MMC positions, while the MMC regularly detained sleeper cells suspected of links to Turkish intelligence services and Turkish-backed militias, illustrating Turkey’s long-standing interest in this strategically-located city. As early as 2019, Turkish president Erdogan was openly signalling that Manbij was among Turkey’s targets.
