Update November 30: Northern Syria Offensive
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a Sunni Salafi political and military organization with a stronghold in the Idlib region of North-West Syria. Since November 26th, they have been advancing and gaining more territories from the Syrian government in the southern and eastern countryside of Aleppo, the most significant conflict following a 2020 ceasefire brokered between Turkey and Russia.
RIC map from November 30th, showing the advance of forces on ground
The Syrian Democratic Forces have been deployed to the DAANES-controlled neighborhoods of Aleppo, Sheikh Maqsood and Ashrafiye. These neighborhoods are home to tens of thousands of Kurds and have maintained autonomy from both Assad and HTS despite heavy fighting throughout the conflict.
The Syrian government has been retreating from some areas. There are reported 200+ casualties to date including executed students.
DAANES is facilitating the return of over 2,000 residents from Sheikh Maqsood into contiguous regions under SDF/DAANES control. DAANES officials and journalists in the region have stated they expect an attack on the neighborhoods, with HTS forces only kilometers away.
Meanwhile, Turkish controlled factions have increased attacks on the Shehba exclave, home to tens of thousands of displaced Afrini Kurdish and other refugees living in camps. This region is also at immediate risk of invasion and the expulsion of the Kurdish refugees, as occurred in Afrin in 2018.
The Afrin Human Rights Organization, a Kurdish rights monitor based in the Aleppo region told RIC: “Yesterday, the Sheikh Maqsood neighbourhood welcomed around 1,000 families fleeing other parts of Aleppo city. While there are no clashes there currently, a 5pm curfew has been set for civilians and the population is in a state of alert. The climate is one of fear: fear of displacement, siege and massacre.”
RIC’s 2023 report “When Jihadism Learns to Smile: HTS’ Evolution and its Current Presence in North and Northwestern Syria” details the group’s expansion. The report shows how HTS has successfully been building its façade of respectability, righteousness, and reliability for administering a population. Adding to this, HTS pushes the narrative of being the last standing exponent of the Syrian Revolution.
However, this is in the context of various alarming reports of human rights violations in HTS controlled areas, including arbitrary arrests, torture and summary executions in secret prisons, lack of press freedom via both bureaucratic and violent means, lack of freedom of expression, and ethnic and religious discrimination. These seem to hint towards the ongoing construction of an increasingly totalitarian regime.
